Expectations are high for the long-awaited unveiling of Tesla's robotaxi at a Hollywood studio on Thursday night. Too high for some analysts and investors.
The company, which nine years ago began selling software called “Full Self-Driving” that still can’t drive itself, is expected to unveil the so-called “Cybercab” vehicle, which may not have a steering wheel or pedals.
The revelation comes as CEO Elon Musk tries to persuade investors that his company is focusing more on artificial intelligence and robotics as it struggles to sell its flagship line of aging electric vehicles.
Some analysts predict it will be a historic day for the Austin, Texas, company as it takes a big step toward a long-awaited AI-powered robotaxi service.
But other experts in autonomous vehicle tracking say Musk has yet to demonstrate that Tesla’s system can safely navigate without a human driver ready to intervene to prevent accidents.
“I don’t know why the headlines keep being, ‘What’s Tesla going to announce?’” rather than, 'Why does Tesla think we're so stupid?'" said Bryant Walker Smith, a law professor at the University of South Carolina who studies autonomous vehicles.
He doesn't see Tesla having the ability to demonstrate software and hardware that can operate without human supervision, even in a well-known limited area of the driving system.
“We haven’t seen any signs that Tesla is trying to achieve that,” Smith said. “If they were, they wouldn’t be showing it on a closed course, they’d be showing it in a real city or on a real highway.”
Without a clear breakthrough in autonomous technology, Tesla will be content to show off a vehicle without pedals or a steering wheel, something many other companies have already done, he said.
“The challenge is to develop a combination of hardware and software, and the human and digital infrastructure, to safely drive a vehicle, even without a steering wheel, on public roads, in all conditions,” Smith said. “Tesla shows us this every year, and we’re not comfortable with it.”
Many industry analysts aren’t expecting much from the event. TD Cowen’s Jeff Osborne expects Elon Musk to unveil the Cybercab and possibly the Model 2, a lower-cost electric vehicle, but he doesn’t expect a big change in self-driving technology.
“We expect the event to be light on details and to appeal to longtime Tesla true believers,” Osborne wrote in a note. Musk’s statements on the state of readiness for full self-driving, however, will be crucial “given past delays and ongoing scrutiny” of Tesla’s less sophisticated Autopilot driver-assistance system and software.
Tesla’s model line is struggling and not expected to be renewed until late next year at the earliest, Osborne wrote. Additionally, he wrote that TD Cowen believes “Elon’s politicization” is tarnishing Tesla’s brand among Democratic buyers in the U.S.
Elon Musk has endorsed Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and championed many conservative causes. Last weekend, he joined Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania.
Musk has been saying for more than five years that a robotaxi fleet is coming, allowing Tesla owners to make money by having their cars transport passengers when the owners aren’t using them.
But he has acknowledged that past predictions about the use of autonomous driving have proven too optimistic. In 2019, he promised a fleet of autonomous vehicles by the end of 2020.
However, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who is bullish on Tesla stock, wrote in a note to investors that the robotaxi event, dubbed “We, Robot” by the company, will be a new chapter of growth for Tesla.
Ives expects plenty of updates and details from Tesla on the robotaxi, as well as advances in fully autonomous driving and artificial intelligence. He also expects a phased rollout strategy for the robotaxi over the next year, as well as a Tesla ride-hailing app and demonstrations of technologies “designed to revolutionize urban transportation.”
Ives, whose organization will attend the invitation-only event at Warner Bros. Studio, wrote that he also expects updates on Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot, which the company plans to begin selling in 2026.
“We believe this is a pivotal moment for Tesla as the company prepares to unveil its years of behind-the-scenes Robotaxi R&D while Musk & Co. lay out the company’s vision for the future,” Ives wrote.
The announcement comes as U.S. safety regulators investigate fully self-driving cars and Autopilot based on evidence that they are weak systems in ensuring human drivers are paying attention.
Additionally, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) forced Tesla to recall fully autonomous vehicles in February because they allowed speeding and violated other traffic laws, particularly near intersections. Tesla was to fix the problems with an over-the-air software update.
Last April, in Snohomish County, Washington, near Seattle, a Tesla using full-self-driving struck and killed a motorcyclist, authorities said. The Tesla driver told authorities he was using the system while looking at his phone when the car rear-ended the motorcyclist. The motorcyclist was pronounced dead at the scene, authorities said.
NHTSA said it was evaluating information about the fatal crash from Tesla and law enforcement officials.
The Justice Department also requested information from Tesla about full self-driving and Autopilot, as well as other matters.